Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfdde…2b78 crypto 1536 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$147 (-3%) realized −$148 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate63%1000W / 596L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day51.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$130
14 days−$130
30 days−$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 633 -10.7% -19.2% 61% 58% -15.2%
≤30d 1473 -14.1% -22.3% 63% 62% -18.4%
≤90d 1596 -5.4% -14.4% 63% 61% -12.9%
all 1596 -5.4% -14.4% 63% 61% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 61% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 50% -21.2%
15% -30.1% 27% -28.8%
20% -36.9% 15% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1000 / 596
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1596 / 1536
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day51.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 64¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 58¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 64¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 54¢ 38¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 385 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 28? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.58 · official $7.15 · 3500 history records