Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdde…0e00 crypto 28 markets active 1d ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-23%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$2
other 27% −$3
sports 18% −$5
tech 16% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -33.8% -40.1% 50% 38% -63.0%
≤30d 18 -33.0% -39.3% 50% 39% -52.6%
≤90d 28 -20.8% -28.4% 61% 39% -31.4%
all 28 -20.8% -28.4% 61% 39% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 39% -31.4%
10% -35.2% 25% -37.9%
15% -41.5% 21% -43.9%
20% -47.2% 7% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage37d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +9%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 19 $1 $0 +24%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 18 $1 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 17 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12? May 13 $6 $0 +2%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 5 - 0 Real Madrid CF? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 2d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 97¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 80¢ $1 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 30d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 32d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 33d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 58¢ $1 34d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 37d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 5 - 0 Real Madrid CF? BUY No 99¢ $5 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records