Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FD 0xfddf…de2a sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$263 (+20%) realized +$263 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%45W / 57L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$26
sports 49% +$232
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 43% +8.7%
≤30d 102 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 43% +8.7%
≤90d 102 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 43% +8.7%
all 102 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 43% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 43% +8.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 42% -1.7%
15% -26.4% 40% -11.2%
20% -33.7% 34% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses45 / 57
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$41 +197%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 +$5 +474%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $5 +$12 +226%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $143 +$211 +148%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1 +$4 +423%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$10 +188%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 +$16 +307%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1 +$5 +442%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$2 -44%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Yunus Akgün: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde: 1+ goals Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +122%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +60%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$10 +51%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Lee Kangin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $41 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $354 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 6h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 6h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 6h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 6h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 6h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 6h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 7h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 8h
Sweden to win the second half? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records