Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfddf…1686 weather 448 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$62 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate71%294W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$75
14 days+$102
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +8.2% -2.1% 73% 73% +0.2%
≤30d 303 +0.4% -9.2% 72% 70% -13.0%
≤90d 413 -0.5% -10.0% 71% 69% -12.0%
all 413 -0.5% -10.0% 71% 69% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 69% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 56% -20.5%
15% -26.5% 40% -28.1%
20% -33.7% 16% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses294 / 119
Open positions35
Markets (closed)413 / 448
History coverage37d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? No 69¢ 100¢ $21 $30 +$9 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? No 61¢ 100¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? No 75¢ 100¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 63¢ 74¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? No 66¢ 66¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? No 70¢ 64¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? No 63¢ 82¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 68¢ 66¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? No 73¢ 90¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? No 53¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+89%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? No 68¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 48¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? No 80¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? No 69¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 56¢ 40¢ $9 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? No 73¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 70¢ 89¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 64¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? No 78¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? No 84¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? No 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? No 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 68¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $16 +$11 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $21 +$18 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $11 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$6 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $21 +$11 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$23 +112%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$11 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $5 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 57¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 53¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 49¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.69 · official $305.84 (match) · 1070 history records