Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfde0…a0dd crypto 169 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%156W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$17
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$15
politics 7% +$5
finance 3% −$18
other 2% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -0.8% -10.2% 96% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 161 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 161 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 1% -9.5%
all 161 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses156 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)161 / 169
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.89 · official $161.51 (match) · 326 history records