Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfde6…74a2 crypto 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate59%54W / 37L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$16
14 days+$7
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$137
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 22 -13.3% -21.6% 36% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 50 -9.8% -18.4% 48% 0% -10.6%
all 91 -1.2% -10.6% 59% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 9% -9.9%
10% -19.2% 4% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses54 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage204d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 95¢ 96¢ $263 $265 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? No 94¢ 94¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 16 $783 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 14 $412 +$17 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 08 $713 −$8 -1%
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 04 $9 $0 -3%
Will FURIA make a roster change before July? Jun 04 $3 $0 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $613 −$65 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $230 −$12 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 30 $31 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? May 29 $489 +$9 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? May 28 $14 −$4 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? May 28 $475 −$106 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 25 $494 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 24 $460 +$39 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 24 $13 −$5 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 23 $455 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 21 $465 −$20 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $484 +$14 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $479 +$20 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 16 $970 −$14 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 15 $185 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 13 $390 +$14 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14? May 13 $481 −$40 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $490 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $483 −$58 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $958 +$29 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $983 −$18 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? Apr 13 $495 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10? Apr 09 $476 −$24 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10? Apr 09 $480 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $513 −$4 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 7? Apr 06 $470 +$13 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 04 $470 +$27 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 5? Apr 04 $483 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2? Apr 01 $497 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 2? Apr 01 $489 +$12 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $465 +$33 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $431 −$11 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 31? Mar 30 $474 −$28 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 27? Mar 26 $491 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 25? Mar 25 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Mar 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $8 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $484 +$16 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 22? Mar 22 $490 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 22? Mar 22 $495 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 94¢ $73 11m
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 94¢ $60 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 95¢ $192 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $428 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $428 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $46 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $46 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $368 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $366 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $215 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $140 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $114 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $4 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $185 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $6 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $18 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $9 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $10 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $2 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $18 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $2 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $356 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $188 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $182 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 85¢ $335 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $357 12d
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 61¢ $9 13d
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 61¢ $9 13d
Will FURIA make a roster change before July? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 13d
Will FURIA make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.94 · official $324.94 (match) · 345 history records