Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfde8…1eb3 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-15%) realized −$56 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$65
sports 15% +$31
world 10% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -32.8% -39.2% 36% 36% -26.1%
≤30d 11 -32.8% -39.2% 36% 36% -26.1%
≤90d 11 -32.8% -39.2% 36% 36% -26.1%
all 11 -32.8% -39.2% 36% 36% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 36% -26.1%
10% -45.0% 36% -33.2%
15% -50.3% 36% -39.7%
20% -55.2% 27% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage10d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots Yes 67¢ 50¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$5 -5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $61 +$31 +51%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $31 +$29 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 9m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $97 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 15h
Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots BUY Yes 67¢ $20 15h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $20 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $93 29h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 30h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $59 30h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $31 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $61 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.26 · official $34.26 (match) · 25 history records