Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfdeb…9831
crypto · 73 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
+$10 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$56
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses47 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)68 / 73
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 5 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$11
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 88¢ 95¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 80¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? No 88¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 86¢ 85¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? No 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? No 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? No 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$3 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 $0 -5%
Haiti to win the second half? Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Will CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Will FF Jaro win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will AC Oulu win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +42%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$395 on the final day of trading of the we Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Son Heungmin: 2+ shots Jun 12 $25 +$4 +17%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Son Heungmin: 1+ assists Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 36% +$16
other 27% $0
sports 16% −$7
weather 9% −$7
world 6% +$2
finance 3% +$2
tech 2% +$1
politics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 59¢ $7 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $4 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 10h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 81¢ $4 10h
Haiti to win the second half? SELL No 81¢ $4 11h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $4 12h
Haiti to win the second half? BUY No 85¢ $4 12h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 86¢ $5 12h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 80¢ $5 12h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 81¢ $5 13h
Will CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $5 16h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $5 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 21h
Will FF Jaro win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 88¢ $5 21h
Will FF Jaro win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $5 23h
Will AC Oulu win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 78¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -5.7% -14.7% 78% 17% -7.5%
≤30d 68 -6.0% -14.9% 69% 15% -9.2%
≤90d 68 -6.0% -14.9% 69% 15% -9.2%
all 68 -6.0% -14.9% 69% 15% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 15% -9.2%
10% -23.1% 7% -17.9%
15% -30.5% 3% -25.9%
20% -37.3% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.91 · official $55.51 (match) · 187 history records