Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FD 0xfdec…b305 crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$21 (-4%) realized −$19 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$29
other 11% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +12.9% +2.1% 53% 40% -15.1%
≤30d 15 +12.9% +2.1% 53% 40% -15.1%
≤90d 15 +12.9% +2.1% 53% 40% -15.1%
all 15 +12.9% +2.1% 53% 40% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 40% -15.1%
10% -7.6% 40% -23.2%
15% -16.6% 40% -30.6%
20% -24.7% 40% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$25 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$19 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $96 −$41 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$61 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $34 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $35 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $17 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $54 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.39 · official $58.39 (match) · 51 history records