Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdee…dafc politics 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%23W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$5
politics 25% −$3
other 22% −$6
crypto 10% −$2
economics 6% −$1
world 5% −$2
culture 4% $0
finance 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 72 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 180 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses23 / 157
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage172d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $33 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 19 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $196 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $80 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $159 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $40 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 11 $72 $0 +0%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $42 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 10 $40 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 09 $73 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $74 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $258 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $74 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 06 $135 $0 +0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 7h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $29 7d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 97¢ $39 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $39 15d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 95¢ $33 29d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 96¢ $33 29d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $35 39d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $36 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 98¢ $38 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 98¢ $38 67d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $34 67d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $34 68d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $36 68d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $36 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL No 92¢ $27 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 93¢ $27 68d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $38 68d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $38 69d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $32 69d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $32 69d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 69d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 69d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $32 69d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $32 69d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 69d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 70d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 70d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 662 history records