Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfdef…7f98 sports 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$718 (+5%) realized +$718 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 33L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$289est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$760
14 days+$760
30 days+$599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$649
other 1% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -8.4% -17.2% 42% 33% +3.1%
≤30d 41 -2.9% -12.2% 46% 44% -5.4%
≤90d 63 +1.4% -8.2% 48% 40% -5.7%
all 63 +1.4% -8.2% 48% 40% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 40% -5.7%
10% -17.0% 37% -14.7%
15% -25.0% 32% -23.0%
20% -32.4% 29% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$131 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$718
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$289
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage31d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $678 +$67 +10%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $132 −$130 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $254 −$151 -59%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $253 −$13 -5%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $1,286 +$392 +30%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $647 +$545 +84%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $255 −$80 -31%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $553 +$237 +43%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $273 −$20 -7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $609 −$256 -42%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $127 −$125 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $384 +$294 +76%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $1,290 −$1,276 -99%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 02 $132 −$132 -100%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $303 −$300 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $413 +$224 +54%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $282 −$277 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osaka Jun 01 $114 −$112 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Arnaldi Jun 01 $237 −$234 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $82 −$80 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $699 +$180 +26%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $244 +$82 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $152 −$150 -98%
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5) May 31 $406 +$348 +86%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $769 −$53 -7%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $269 +$253 +94%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $425 −$50 -12%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $38 −$7 -18%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $814 +$1,188 +146%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $444 −$438 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $132 −$130 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $160 +$117 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $132 +$162 +123%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $177 +$102 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $227 +$36 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $111 +$79 +71%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $130 +$185 +142%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $46 +$140 +304%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio May 28 $108 +$87 +80%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $54 −$53 -98%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 18 $36 −$10 -27%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $18 −$8 -44%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S May 18 $8 −$8 -99%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Alycia Parks vs Moyuka Uchijima May 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 18 $7 +$26 +365%
Hamburg European Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 18 $14 +$5 +36%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur May 18 $19 +$2 +9%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova May 18 $68 −$59 -87%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 18 $34 +$28 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 99¢ $546 19m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 67¢ $374 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 33¢ $200 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 49¢ $305 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 43¢ $132 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 17¢ $104 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $254 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $241 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $253 4h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 65¢ $404 7h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 66¢ $59 7h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Qinwen Zheng 36¢ $154 7h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 46¢ $203 7h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 54¢ $198 7h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 61¢ $233 7h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 64¢ $617 7h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 39¢ $387 8h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Katie Boulter 100¢ $971 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 38¢ $102 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 41¢ $293 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Elena Rybakina 57¢ $222 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 63¢ $253 5d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz SELL Mattia Bellucci 30¢ $176 5d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 42¢ $255 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $259 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 58¢ $253 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 61¢ $273 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 49¢ $280 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $294 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 28¢ $137 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records