Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfdf0…be9c other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$726 (+21%) realized +$746 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%22W / 20L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$512
sports 29% +$14
crypto 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +37.4% +24.3% 52% 48% +5.9%
≤30d 42 +37.4% +24.3% 52% 48% +5.9%
≤90d 42 +37.4% +24.3% 52% 48% +5.9%
all 42 +37.4% +24.3% 52% 48% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.3% 48% +5.9%
10% +12.4% 40% -4.2%
15% +1.5% 29% -13.5%
20% -8.4% 19% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$38 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$746
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses22 / 20
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 51
History coverage7d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $102 −$36 -35%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $203 −$129 -64%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $202 +$68 +34%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $3 +$3 +111%
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $504 +$129 +26%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$47 -92%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $102 +$453 +442%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$76 -75%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $311 +$34 +11%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$31 +31%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $31 −$4 -12%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 +$51 +510%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $152 +$64 +42%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$39 +38%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$40 +40%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $101 +$80 +79%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $36 −$25 -69%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$20 +20%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 +$151 +1469%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $19 +$12 +65%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 44m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 22¢ $40 45m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 19¢ $74 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $203 3h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $270 4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 74¢ $202 5h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $633 5h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $504 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 22h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 36h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 8¢ $26 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? SELL No 100¢ $344 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? BUY No 90¢ $311 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 21¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.36 · official $80.36 (match) · 88 history records