Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
FD 0xfdf1…2960 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$7 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$31
sports 19% −$38
crypto 14% +$53
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +10.4% -0.1% 60% 60% +7.3%
≤30d 10 +10.4% -0.1% 60% 60% +7.3%
≤90d 10 +10.4% -0.1% 60% 60% +7.3%
all 10 +10.4% -0.1% 60% 60% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 60% +7.3%
10% -9.6% 60% -3.0%
15% -18.4% 30% -12.4%
20% -26.4% 20% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)10 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$40 +129%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$21 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$6 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$6 +33%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series BUY Carstensz 75¢ $10 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $19 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $47 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 38h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 39h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.79 · official $178.79 (match) · 34 history records