Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FD 0xfdf3…2583 crypto 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (631 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$871 (+4%) realized +$841 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +776% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +574% what you keep after slip
Net edge+574%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%296W / 161L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day631.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,384
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (631 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+692.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 457 +775.5% +692.2% 65% 61% -23.8%
≤30d 457 +775.5% +692.2% 65% 61% -23.8%
≤90d 457 +775.5% +692.2% 65% 61% -23.8%
all 457 +775.5% +692.2% 65% 61% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover631.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +692.2% 61% -23.8%
10% ← realistic here +616.4% 59% -31.1%
15% +547.1% 58% -37.7%
20% +483.7% 57% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +776% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +32% → late +1515% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
21.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$186 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$4,553
Realized+$841
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses296 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Open positions72
Markets (closed)457 / 110
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$214
Trades / day631.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $760 $728 −$32 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 84¢ 92¢ $503 $552 +$49 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $263 $272 +$9 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? No 60¢ 92¢ $162 $251 +$90 (+55%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? No 37¢ 22¢ $364 $214 −$150 (-41%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? No 95¢ 93¢ $194 $190 −$4 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 94¢ 99¢ $143 $149 +$7 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 92¢ 88¢ $153 $148 −$6 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? No 89¢ 76¢ $145 $124 −$21 (-14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 64¢ 76¢ $93 $110 +$18 (+19%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? No 84¢ 88¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $106 $104 −$2 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 50¢ 69¢ $74 $103 +$29 (+39%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $90 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? No 84¢ 99¢ $72 $85 +$13 (+19%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? No 87¢ 98¢ $72 $82 +$9 (+13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $81 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? No 80¢ 76¢ $64 $61 −$3 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 41¢ 72¢ $35 $60 +$25 (+72%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $53 $54 +$2 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? No 84¢ 78¢ $41 $38 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 427 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 17 $17 −$8 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 7? Jun 17 $1 +$88 +11825%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 2? Jun 17 $4 +$228 +5277%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3? Jun 17 $3 +$114 +3791%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30? Jun 17 $989 −$994 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -215%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6? Jun 17 $3 +$54 +2026%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? Jun 17 $2 +$117 +6498%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Jun 17 $2 +$21 +1224%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25? Jun 17 $0 +$142 +53846%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 12? Jun 17 $3 +$33 +1258%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 7? Jun 17 $13 +$9 +71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 23? Jun 17 $553 −$751 -136%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 4? Jun 17 $18 −$19 -102%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 17 $52 −$36 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8? Jun 17 $11 +$248 +2169%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? Jun 17 $1 +$14 +2125%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 4? Jun 17 $0 +$14 +3450%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 17 $14 −$71 -497%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 5? Jun 17 $1 +$39 +7126%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? Jun 17 $6 +$70 +1196%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 7? Jun 17 $217 −$228 -105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 6? Jun 17 $4 +$32 +808%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 17 $11 +$14 +120%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 10? Jun 17 $0 +$28 +8222%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 7? Jun 17 $10 +$66 +680%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? Jun 17 $12 +$57 +477%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 7? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? Jun 17 $75 +$31 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 4? Jun 17 $1 +$28 +3277%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 6? Jun 17 $36 +$4 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 4? Jun 17 $8 +$116 +1397%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 24? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 8? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +150%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 6? Jun 17 $3 +$95 +3285%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 24? Jun 17 $0 +$1,269 +419161%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 7? Jun 17 $10 +$185 +1862%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 1? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 17 $19 +$4 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? Jun 17 $1 +$172 +11550%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 21? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +686%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26? Jun 17 $333 −$492 -148%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Jun 17 $0 +$132 +63240%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 11? Jun 17 $0 +$11 +32476%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 25? Jun 17 $1,304 −$1,357 -104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $18 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $18 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 9¢ $4 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $46 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 7m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 22¢ $11 13m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 23¢ $5 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $18 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 23¢ $5 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $18 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $18 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $18 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 23¢ $5 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $18 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 23¢ $5 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $18 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 29¢ $0 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 23¢ $5 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,552.67 · official $4,552.70 (match) · 3500 history records