Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdf3…68ae politics 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,503 (+5%) realized +$5,536 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate50%97W / 98L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$603per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$5,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 307d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$10,397
other 25% +$1,593
world 13% +$1,162
sports 3% −$521
finance 1% +$243
tech 0% −$224
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% +$269
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -29.8% -36.5% 39% 28% -18.0%
≤30d 38 -13.8% -22.0% 45% 37% +6.5%
≤90d 95 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 32% -19.9%
all 195 -13.1% -21.4% 50% 28% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 28% -15.7%
10% -28.9% 17% -23.8%
15% -35.8% 13% -31.2%
20% -42.1% 9% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$674) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$179 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$5,207
Realized+$5,536
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses97 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)195 / 199
History coverage307d
Avg bet$603
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $5,093 $5,078 −$15 (-0%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $94 $81 −$13 (-14%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? No 19¢ 18¢ $54 $48 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 20 $878 +$35 +4%
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $1,509 +$36 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 17 $58 −$5 -9%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -18%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $59 −$1 -1%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $903 +$108 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $401 −$400 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $30 +$8 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $52 −$30 -58%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $139 +$52 +38%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $101 +$41 +40%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $21 −$6 -30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $1,799 +$134 +8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $269 +$53 +20%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 04 $3,157 +$393 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $40 −$40 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $100 −$15 -15%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $202 −$136 -67%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 02 $52 +$49 +94%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $536 +$742 +138%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia advance to the second May 27 $4 −$3 -96%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C May 27 $370 +$1,072 +290%
Will someone else advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian pr May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $191 +$29 +15%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres May 11 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Daniel Quintero place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 06 $1,459 −$541 -37%
Will Vicky Dávila place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre May 06 $1,456 −$536 -37%
Will Enrique Peñalosa place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 06 $1,457 −$539 -37%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi May 06 $1,457 −$659 -45%
Will Juan Manuel Galán place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombia May 06 $1,457 −$538 -37%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colom May 06 $1,451 −$655 -45%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colo May 06 $1,456 −$537 -37%
Will Mauricio Cárdenas place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombia May 06 $1,454 −$436 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 43¢ $170 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 43¢ $57 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $1,247 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 43¢ $43 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 43¢ $227 2h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 43¢ $10 2h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $511 26h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $134 26h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $452 26h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $341 26h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $1,232 26h
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 96¢ $98 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 36h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 42¢ $400 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 45h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 42¢ $102 45h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee BUY No 12¢ $12 2d
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 92¢ $542 2d
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 92¢ $1,003 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 16¢ $53 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 59¢ $58 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 74¢ $10 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $903 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $86 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 5d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee BUY No 30¢ $33 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $301 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,207.44 · official $5,207.44 (match) · 1450 history records