Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdf6…00a1 sports 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60,165 (-11%) realized −$47,970 · open −$12,195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%86W / 89L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,054per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$3,322est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$36,951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61,806
7 days−$75,731
14 days−$75,505
30 days−$70,081
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$59,624
other 27% −$16,948
crypto 1% −$1,449
world 0% −$525
politics 0% −$58
tech 0% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -31.6% -38.1% 38% 36% -28.5%
≤30d 123 -22.7% -30.1% 44% 39% -22.9%
≤90d 175 -11.6% -20.0% 49% 45% -21.8%
all 175 -11.6% -20.0% 49% 45% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 45% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 38% -29.3%
15% -34.7% 29% -36.1%
20% -41.1% 26% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$904) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$806 vs −$1,526 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$36,951
Realized−$47,970
Unrealized−$12,195
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses86 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$3,322
Open positions2
Markets (closed)175 / 177
History coverage71d
Avg bet$3,054
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 50¢ $43,146 $36,931 −$6,216 (-14%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $6,000 $21 −$5,979 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23,040 −$22,859 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $816 −$816 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10,108 +$5,501 +54%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $823 −$800 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,540 −$1,500 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $42,575 −$42,575 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $815 +$1,345 +165%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $50,777 +$7,864 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $46,522 −$3,043 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $22,465 +$21,789 +97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2,122 −$1,138 -54%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,021 −$864 -85%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,877 +$1,263 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31,766 −$16,320 -51%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10,830 −$8,620 -80%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5,058 −$4,540 -90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $18,178 −$3,360 -18%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $39,057 −$1,753 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5,218 +$573 +11%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5,403 +$1,178 +22%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $3,024 −$2,804 -93%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $434 −$434 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $470 −$470 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $551 −$551 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $4,522 −$4,522 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $4,901 −$4,901 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $102 +$21 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,454 +$273 +8%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $138 +$36 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $305 +$172 +56%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7,964 +$5,226 +66%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9,935 +$1,277 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $665 −$570 -86%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4,588 +$498 +11%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $509 +$43 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $410 +$99 +24%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $326 +$84 +26%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $334 +$108 +32%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $505 +$234 +46%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $510 +$959 +188%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $505 −$505 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $101 +$29 +29%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $205 +$732 +358%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3,185 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $6,154 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $40,492 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $23,040 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15,609 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $823 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,540 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10,108 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,160 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $815 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $816 45h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $58,641 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $50,777 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $19,979 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $1,003 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $43 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $260 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $65 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $19 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $37 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $19 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $137 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $130 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $3,693 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $19 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $8 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $88 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $65 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $19 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $903 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,951.19 · official $36,951.19 (match) · 641 history records