Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

FD 0xfdf8…01a7 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$12 (+7%) realized +$12 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate67%8W / 4L

Drawdown40%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$16

7 days+$27

14 days+$27

30 days+$24

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+6.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+39.5%	+26.2%	83%	83%	+9.3%
≤30d	7	+29.5%	+17.2%	71%	71%	+5.9%
≤90d	12	+17.7%	+6.5%	67%	58%	+9.8%
all	12	+17.7%	+6.5%	67%	58%	+9.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.5%	58%	+9.8%
10%	-3.7%	42%	-0.7%
15%	-13.0%	42%	-10.3%
20%	-21.5%	33%	-19.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -4% → late +40% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$12

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses8 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)12 / 12

History coverage59d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown40%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 12 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$30	+$6	+19%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$10	+101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland w	Jun 18	$10	+$8	+83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$40	−$14	-34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$2	+21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$30	+$14	+48%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$10	−$3	-31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	May 06	$10	+$11	+108%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?	Apr 28	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Apr 26	$1	$0	+1%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-25?	Apr 26	$5	+$5	+97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24?	Apr 24	$10	−$1	-7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	81¢	$36	14m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY	49¢	$10	2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland w	BUY	54¢	$10	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	52¢	$27	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$40	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	81¢	$12	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	7d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	30¢	$7	23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	SELL Yes	81¢	$21	46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	46d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	46d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?	BUY Yes	38¢	$5	55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$1	57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$1	57d
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-25?	BUY Yes	50¢	$5	58d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24?	SELL Yes	71¢	$9	58d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24?	BUY Yes	74¢	$10	58d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records