Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdf9…0d61 crypto 557 markets active 3d ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%256W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$7
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$48
weather 3% −$16
world 1% −$4
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +1.5% -8.1% 60% 58% -8.9%
≤30d 391 -4.9% -14.0% 53% 50% -4.1%
≤90d 509 -17.8% -25.7% 44% 41% -11.9%
all 557 -12.9% -21.2% 46% 43% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 43% -8.9%
10% -28.7% 39% -17.6%
15% -35.6% 34% -25.5%
20% -41.9% 27% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses256 / 301
Open positions0
Markets (closed)557 / 557
History coverage140d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 557 Trades
no open positions (190 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +119%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$7 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1271 history records