Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdfa…a3b1 crypto 184 markets active 20h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%47W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$59
crypto 26% −$49
other 16% −$71
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -1.3% -10.7% 24% 24% -4.2%
≤30d 60 -2.9% -12.2% 23% 23% -4.6%
≤90d 184 -17.4% -25.2% 26% 24% -17.1%
all 184 -17.4% -25.2% 26% 24% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 24% -17.1%
10% -32.4% 23% -25.0%
15% -38.9% 22% -32.3%
20% -44.9% 21% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses47 / 137
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)184 / 184
History coverage55d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 184 Trades
no open positions (135 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$7 +344%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 +$23 +442%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 +$28 +550%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 +$26 +510%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +240%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +266%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $5 +$24 +474%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $5 +$23 +448%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$8 -39%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $10 +$44 +437%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $5 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $5 30h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $5 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down $0 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down $1 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records