Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FD 0xfdfc…05c0 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$23 (+14%) realized +$24 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown94%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+0.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+11.2%	+0.7%	80%	60%	+5.0%
≤30d	5	+11.2%	+0.7%	80%	60%	+5.0%
≤90d	5	+11.2%	+0.7%	80%	60%	+5.0%
all	5	+11.2%	+0.7%	80%	60%	+5.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.7%	60%	+5.0%
10%	-9.0%	40%	-5.0%
15%	-17.8%	40%	-14.2%
20%	-25.8%	40%	-22.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$34

Realized+$24

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown94%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	56¢	55¢	$35	$34	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$31	+$22	+71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$20	−$20	-100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$30	+$5	+16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$22	+$14	+66%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$31	+$1	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	56¢	$36	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	60¢	$20	32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	41h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$30	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$3	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$19	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	97¢	$31	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.06 · official $34.06 (match) · 13 history records