Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe01…b8ae weather 1527 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$732 (-6%) realized −$739 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate72%1052W / 413L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$81
14 days−$133
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -9.3% -17.9% 65% 65% -13.0%
≤30d 357 -4.8% -13.8% 69% 69% -13.9%
≤90d 1465 -2.6% -11.8% 72% 71% -12.6%
all 1465 -2.6% -11.8% 72% 71% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 71% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 45% -20.9%
15% -28.0% 23% -28.6%
20% -35.0% 9% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$1,415
Realized−$739
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1052 / 413
Open positions63
Markets (closed)1465 / 1527
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 1465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? No 51¢ 100¢ $75 $146 +$71 (+95%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? No 61¢ 100¢ $40 $65 +$25 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? No 61¢ 62¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? No 54¢ 49¢ $43 $39 −$4 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 21? No 60¢ 92¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+54%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? No 65¢ 100¢ $25 $38 +$13 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 21? No 68¢ 100¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+47%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? No 69¢ 100¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 22? No 56¢ 80¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? No 59¢ 83¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+41%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? No 66¢ 100¢ $23 $35 +$12 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 21? No 75¢ 94¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 22? No 77¢ 91¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? No 66¢ 78¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? No 82¢ 96¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 22? No 65¢ 72¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? No 74¢ 83¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 22? No 67¢ 74¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 23? No 67¢ 72¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 22? No 83¢ 87¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 22? No 70¢ 72¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? No 64¢ 70¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 23? No 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22? No 72¢ 71¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 21? No 80¢ 78¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 28? Jun 21 $0 $0 +39%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 +$25 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 21 $50 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 21 $51 +$28 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $25 +$9 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $51 +$13 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $25 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $25 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $25 +$10 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $25 +$11 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $51 +$23 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $76 +$13 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $101 +$34 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $7 +$4 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 21 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $46 +$25 +55%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $25 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $39 +$9 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 20 $23 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 20 $25 +$14 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $25 +$17 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $25 +$8 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $24 +$12 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $25 +$9 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $28 +$10 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 20 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $7 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $7 +$3 +47%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $3 33m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 51¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 22? BUY No 70¢ $25 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 51¢ $12 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 51¢ $8 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 76¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 49¢ $7 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 69¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 74¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 60¢ $7 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 50¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 74¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 69¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $7 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 59¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 65¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 74¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 67¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 65¢ $25 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 23? BUY No 73¢ $25 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 47¢ $26 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $25 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $25 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 74¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 22? BUY No 83¢ $25 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 65¢ $25 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,415.35 · official $1,406.32 (match) · 3500 history records