Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:03:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe01…6f13 crypto 379 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$503 (-6%) realized −$502 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate67%252W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$11
14 days−$211
30 days−$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$275
sports 9% −$158
other 5% +$31
world 1% −$105
tech 1% −$30
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 -8.2% -17.0% 51% 47% -10.0%
≤30d 374 -7.9% -16.7% 67% 32% -14.2%
≤90d 378 -8.1% -16.8% 67% 31% -15.2%
all 378 -8.1% -16.8% 67% 31% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 31% -15.2%
10% -24.8% 27% -23.3%
15% -32.1% 27% -30.7%
20% -38.7% 25% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$502
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses252 / 126
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)378 / 379
History coverage40d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $160 +$128 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $81 −$78 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $315 +$214 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $140 −$136 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $79 +$69 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $315 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $140 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.11 (match) · 679 history records