Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe02…be9d sports 372 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34,064 (+9%) realized +$38,165 · open −$4,101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%214W / 156L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$1,058per market
Trades / day56.3pace
Fees−$4,265est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,750now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$3,234
other 4% −$492
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 37% -17.8%
≤30d 212 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 47% -9.6%
≤90d 370 +4.8% -5.1% 58% 51% -7.9%
all 370 +4.8% -5.1% 58% 51% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 51% -7.9%
10% -14.2% 42% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -22.5% 36% -24.8%
20% -30.1% 26% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$948) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$413 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$4,750
Realized+$38,165
Unrealized−$4,101
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses214 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$4,265
Open positions2
Markets (closed)370 / 372
History coverage47d
Avg bet$1,058
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 73¢ 29¢ $6,691 $2,666 −$4,026 (-60%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 69¢ $2,160 $2,085 −$75 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $658 +$182 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,557 +$393 +15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $8,458 +$4,901 +58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $180 +$238 +132%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,547 −$2,547 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $427 −$242 -57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$41 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2,760 +$240 +9%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,492 +$303 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $775 −$233 -30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $17,110 +$1,093 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,185 −$3,185 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $316 −$316 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,333 +$667 +50%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $326 −$326 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $617 −$617 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $510 +$240 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,312 +$1,226 +94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $969 −$947 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6,110 +$3,890 +64%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $160 −$145 -90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,983 +$1,459 +74%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $53 −$12 -22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $238 −$238 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $173 +$327 +188%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $389 −$370 -95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $340 −$340 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $463 −$293 -63%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,529 +$374 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $320 −$36 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $426 −$378 -89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $516 +$484 +94%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $280 +$220 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5,774 −$5,774 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $347 +$153 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,927 −$2,108 -54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6,271 −$4,171 -66%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,206 +$25 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $1,850 −$1,803 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $610 +$390 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $128 −$128 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $144 −$144 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $540 −$540 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $155 −$150 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6,800 +$3,200 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $125 −$125 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,338 −$1,338 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $82 +$168 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 90¢ $1,456 49m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 58¢ $184 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 59¢ $150 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 74¢ $7,458 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 26¢ $401 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 33¢ $137 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 3¢ $8 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 84¢ $840 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 65¢ $650 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 89¢ $2,456 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $40 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $46 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 84¢ $418 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 36¢ $180 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 88¢ $1,113 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $89 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $315 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $34 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $124 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,750.16 · official $4,750.46 (match) · 3000 history records