Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FE 0xfe03…46bd sports 33 markets active 8h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+9%) realized +$30 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$11
sports 46% +$13
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 38% +3.0%
≤30d 26 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 38% +3.0%
≤90d 26 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 38% +3.0%
all 26 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 38% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 38% +3.0%
10% -21.2% 38% -6.8%
15% -28.8% 38% -15.8%
20% -35.8% 35% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)26 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$3 -60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 $0 -4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $20 +$32 +159%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$20 -79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$11 +216%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$15 +48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$7 +180%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$8 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $11 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 20¢ $2 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 14h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 14h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $2 34h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 35h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 39h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 19¢ $2 39h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 81¢ $20 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 42h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 2d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $5 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.48 · official $32.49 (match) · 51 history records