Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:23:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe04…9a42 crypto 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$569 (-8%) realized −$272 · open −$297
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%62W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$32
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$178
crypto 29% −$10
world 12% −$3
politics 9% −$91
sports 8% −$128
finance 4% −$57
economics 3% −$98
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +185.7% +158.5% 100% 100% +158.5%
≤30d 4 +115.9% +95.3% 100% 100% +65.5%
≤90d 126 -60.0% -63.8% 15% 15% -58.1%
all 195 -14.4% -22.5% 32% 30% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 30% -14.0%
10% -29.9% 27% -22.2%
15% -36.7% 22% -29.7%
20% -42.9% 20% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$17 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$699
Realized−$272
Unrealized−$297
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses62 / 133
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions34
Markets (closed)195 / 229
History coverage589d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 57¢ $102 $117 +$15 (+15%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $94 $97 +$3 (+4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $74 $58 −$15 (-21%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? Yes 48¢ 18¢ $159 $58 −$100 (-63%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $22 $38 +$17 (+76%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-15%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-13%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-13%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 24¢ 50¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+108%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $49 $18 −$30 (-63%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+28%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $37 $17 −$20 (-54%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $29 $15 −$14 (-47%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+87%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 32¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+57%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-64%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +186%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $23 +$12 +54%
Will Zcash reach $600 by December 31, 2026? May 19 $7 +$13 +178%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027? May 19 $30 +$14 +46%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $71 −$48 -67%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 19 $4 +$2 +35%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 19 $17 +$13 +79%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 11 $34 −$1 -2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 11 $6 +$4 +79%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12? Apr 07 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Apr 07 $27 +$19 +73%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $100 +$170 +170%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $18 −$18 -100%
New Mexico Lobos vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Apr 01 $28 −$21 -75%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $10 +$18 +170%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers Mar 30 $13 −$13 -100%
US strike on Cuba by January 31? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Mar 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025? Mar 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? Mar 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,040 on the final trading day of Janua Mar 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 26-1? Mar 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football National Championship Mar 30 $18 −$3 -19%
USDT depeg in 2025? Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana dip to $50 in February? Mar 30 $6 −$6 -100%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025? Mar 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 30 $14 −$14 -100%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? Mar 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? Mar 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,760 on the final trading day of Janua Mar 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Mar 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on January 14? Mar 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 1h
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $35 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 28d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 28d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY No 54¢ $20 28d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY No 54¢ $20 28d
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 56d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 56d
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 57d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 48¢ $23 57d
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 57d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 57d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 57d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 57d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 57d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 57d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 57d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 57d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 63d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 63d
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 64d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 65d
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 66d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $33 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.29 · official $699.29 (match) · 925 history records