Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe12…4f56 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-13%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$12
crypto 40% −$13
other 18% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -25.3% -32.4% 27% 20% -11.3%
≤30d 15 -25.3% -32.4% 27% 20% -11.3%
≤90d 15 -25.3% -32.4% 27% 20% -11.3%
all 15 -25.3% -32.4% 27% 20% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.4% 20% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.9% 13% -19.8%
15% -44.8% 13% -27.6%
20% -50.2% 13% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$18 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$9 +244%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $16 −$11 -69%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 10h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 20¢ $4 11h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff SELL G2 Esports 24¢ $4 11h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 50¢ $4 13h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 64¢ $7 15h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 39¢ $2 16h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 41¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records