Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe12…4b28 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% $0
other 27% $0
politics 9% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.1% -14.1% 22% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 10 -3.2% -12.4% 30% 10% -11.4%
≤90d 13 +3.5% -6.4% 38% 15% -9.6%
all 35 -4.8% -13.9% 46% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 6% -9.8%
10% -22.1% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -36.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage458d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $40 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $85 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$2 -24%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $84 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $80 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 −$4 -14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $44 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $9 +$7 +81%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $41 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 10 $13 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 09 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $14 $0 +3%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 23 $1 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $14 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $3 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $37 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $40 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $42 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $44 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $44 29h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $40 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $40 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $43 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $44 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $14 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $27 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $43 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $44 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records