Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfe13…8b9c crypto 801 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$236 (-1%) realized −$237 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate83%660W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$120
other 9% −$27
weather 3% −$84
world 0% −$19
politics 0% −$11
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.3% -3.8% 91% 36% -2.8%
≤30d 11 +6.3% -3.8% 91% 36% -2.8%
≤90d 11 +6.3% -3.8% 91% 36% -2.8%
all 797 -2.0% -11.3% 83% 12% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 12% -10.1%
10% -19.8% 4% -18.7%
15% -27.6% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses660 / 137
Open positions4
Markets (closed)797 / 801
History coverage248d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 797 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 19? No 92¢ 88¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $54 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $26 −$4 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $90 +$13 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $46 +$9 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $18 +$3 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 13 $19 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 12 $39 −$4 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 12 $18 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 12 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 12 $39 −$10 -26%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 12 $37 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 12 $39 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 12 $19 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 12 $19 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 12 $19 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 12 $58 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 12 $29 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 12 $18 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 12 $19 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 12 $39 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 12 $25 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 12 $35 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 12 $69 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 19h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 19h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 19h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 19h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $22 19h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $26 29h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $25 39h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 40h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 41h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $25 47h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $26 47h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 47h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $23 47h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $28 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $12 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $34 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.75 · official $153.99 (match) · 3365 history records