Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FE 0xfe15…aa32 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$47 (+4%) realized +$36 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$80
politics 30% −$21
economics 12% −$15
sports 9% −$10
tech 8% +$23
finance 2% +$3
crypto 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -31.0% -37.6% 20% 20% -34.0%
≤30d 5 -31.0% -37.6% 20% 20% -34.0%
≤90d 5 -31.0% -37.6% 20% 20% -34.0%
all 46 -12.2% -20.5% 48% 30% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 30% -6.1%
10% -28.1% 24% -15.1%
15% -35.1% 20% -23.3%
20% -41.4% 15% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage556d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $26 −$5 -18%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $37 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? Jan 18 $47 +$2 +5%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-09? Jan 10 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 09 $16 +$11 +67%
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 08 $21 +$16 +75%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 05 $45 +$22 +49%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 01 $45 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 21 $27 −$9 -33%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 20 $24 +$3 +12%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 14 $119 +$3 +2%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-03? Nov 08 $38 +$81 +212%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 03 $32 +$6 +18%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $32 +$1 +2%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $19 +$13 +68%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? Oct 24 $14 +$5 +37%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $17 −$3 -17%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 22 $20 −$3 -16%
League of Legends: FlyQuest vs. 100 Thieves Sep 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 07 $14 +$3 +19%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $18 −$4 -25%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $21 −$5 -25%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $18 −$5 -25%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 11 $40 −$7 -17%
MSI Playoffs: CTBC Flying Oyster vs. Movistar KOI Jul 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Jul 01 $4 −$4 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jul 01 $8 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $11 −$3 -25%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-29? May 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 25 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-01? Apr 14 $3 +$2 +52%
76ers vs. Timberwolves Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-06? Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Mar 04 $5 −$2 -41%
Pistons vs. Jazz Mar 04 $7 +$2 +30%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 03 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Jan 31 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 12 $121 −$10 -8%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 12 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $22 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $30 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $37 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 39h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $26 39h
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-09? BUY Yes 97¢ $28 162d
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-08? BUY No 60¢ $16 163d
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $21 164d
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? BUY No 95¢ $47 166d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 67¢ $45 201d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $45 205d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $18 211d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 213d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 89¢ $24 213d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $27 213d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? BUY Yes 98¢ $119 220d
Will Everton win on 2025-11-03? BUY No 32¢ $38 229d
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 233d
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 233d
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $32 238d
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner BUY CTBC Flying Oyster 60¢ $19 239d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.04 · official $61.04 (match) · 99 history records