Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FE 0xfe1d…68f6 crypto 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$198 (+15%) realized +$268 · open −$70

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip

Net edge+9%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$432per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+8.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+20.3%	+8.9%	100%	50%	+9.5%
≤30d	2	+20.3%	+8.9%	100%	50%	+9.5%
≤90d	2	+20.3%	+8.9%	100%	50%	+9.5%
all	2	+20.3%	+8.9%	100%	50%	+9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.9%	50%	+9.5%
10%	-1.5%	50%	-1.0%
15%	-11.0%	0%	-10.5%
20%	-19.8%	0%	-19.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$89 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$380

Realized+$268

Unrealized−$70

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$432

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20?	Up	89¢	76¢	$450	$380	−$70 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19?	Jun 19	$442	+$154	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18?	Jun 19	$402	+$24	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20?	BUY Up	89¢	$453	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19?	SELL Up	97¢	$353	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19?	SELL Up	68¢	$243	26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19?	BUY Up	59¢	$442	27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18?	BUY Down	94¢	$402	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.24 · official $380.24 (match) · 6 history records