Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfe1d…219e crypto 573 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,802 (-14%) realized −$3,837 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate73%402W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$54
14 days−$797
30 days−$694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$2,006
other 8% −$126
sports 3% −$194
weather 2% −$1
tech 2% −$17
finance 1% +$48
world 1% +$67
culture 0% −$17
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +54.7% +40.0% 80% 20% +17.1%
≤30d 90 -22.8% -30.1% 66% 22% -25.7%
≤90d 383 -9.3% -17.9% 73% 26% -19.3%
all 552 -8.3% -17.1% 73% 32% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 32% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 15% -25.2%
15% -32.3% 9% -32.5%
20% -38.9% 6% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$32 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1,296
Realized−$3,837
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses402 / 150
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions21
Markets (closed)552 / 573
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 66¢ 96¢ $99 $144 +$45 (+45%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 91¢ 98¢ $118 $128 +$9 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 66¢ 72¢ $112 $123 +$11 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 86¢ 95¢ $86 $95 +$9 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $89 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $77 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $66 $68 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? No 65¢ 70¢ $62 $67 +$5 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 56¢ $71 $56 −$16 (-22%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 60¢ $72 $54 −$18 (-25%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 96¢ 94¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? No 88¢ 90¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+3%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? No 86¢ 88¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Will South Korea be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 85¢ 84¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 70¢ $38 $35 −$4 (-9%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? No 95¢ 97¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will Iran be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 38¢ $30 $19 −$12 (-39%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 70¢ 76¢ $15 $17 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $36 +$3 +8%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $19 +$51 +262%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $70 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $93 +$6 +7%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $103 +$23 +22%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $24 +$6 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$2 +4%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $72 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $38 −$38 -99%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $94 −$93 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 14 $31 −$30 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $70 +$6 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on April 21? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$8 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 88¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY No 65¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY No 65¢ $33 1h
Will Iran be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wor BUY Yes 74¢ $22 1h
Will South Korea be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 BUY No 85¢ $43 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $13 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $13 1h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $39 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $97 2h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 96¢ $2 2d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 96¢ $5 2d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 96¢ $48 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $6 6d
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $14 6d
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 6d
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 70¢ $14 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 69¢ $1 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 87¢ $18 8d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $46 8d
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 8d
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $13 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $19 10d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $35 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $35 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,295.96 · official $1,295.49 (match) · 3500 history records