Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FE 0xfe1e…7ee3 sports 1077 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,351 (-1%) realized −$2,371 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate72%776W / 295L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Fees−$1,016est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$963now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,008
7 days+$1,027
14 days+$1,020
30 days+$1,476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$4,190
other 11% +$1,391
weather 4% +$332
finance 3% −$1
tech 1% −$161
world 0% −$173
politics 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +6.5% -3.7% 67% 58% -5.8%
≤30d 312 -0.5% -10.0% 69% 61% -7.7%
≤90d 1041 -1.2% -10.6% 72% 52% -11.7%
all 1071 -0.5% -10.0% 72% 52% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 52% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 31% -19.5%
15% -26.5% 19% -27.3%
20% -33.7% 11% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$121 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$963
Realized−$2,371
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses776 / 295
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1,016
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1071 / 1077
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$168
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1071 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners Under 65¢ 64¢ $260 $258 −$2 (-1%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals No 58¢ 58¢ $213 $213 +$0 (+0%)
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Up 69¢ 72¢ $198 $205 +$6 (+3%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Down 86¢ 96¢ $172 $191 +$19 (+11%)
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Up 70¢ 70¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ shots No 30¢ 18¢ $12 $7 −$4 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $417 +$68 +16%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $612 +$16 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $87 +$213 +245%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $195 −$192 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $133 +$24 +18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $45 +$11 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $780 +$219 +28%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $269 −$156 -58%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $190 +$32 +17%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $365 +$134 +37%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $35 +$215 +614%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $481 +$112 +23%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $160 −$147 -92%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $497 −$497 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $212 −$211 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $562 +$187 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $533 −$157 -29%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $459 +$179 +39%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $342 +$257 +75%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $251 −$251 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $54 +$38 +71%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,411 +$1,015 +72%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $267 +$125 +47%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $375 −$119 -32%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $410 −$131 -32%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $199 +$71 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $750 +$249 +33%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,494 +$149 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $448 −$250 -56%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $55 +$17 +31%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 +$15 +29%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $149 +$127 +85%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $793 +$2 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $920 +$66 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $461 −$136 -30%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $234 +$58 +25%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $78 +$22 +28%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $239 −$235 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $276 −$274 -99%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $499 +$128 +26%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $350 −$222 -64%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $432 +$68 +16%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $464 +$163 +35%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,583 +$510 +32%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $229 −$225 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $229 +$82 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $66 26m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $6 30m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $75 32m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $42 33m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $8 35m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $3 39m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $6 39m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $10 54m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $16 56m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $22 57m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 97¢ $485 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $4 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 83¢ $417 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $2 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $99 2h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 70¢ $13 4h
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ shots BUY No 30¢ $3 4h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $628 4h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $30 4h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $22 4h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $61 4h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $6 4h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $95 4h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 88¢ $397 4h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 68¢ $17 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 50¢ $50 5h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 70¢ $20 5h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 70¢ $18 5h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 70¢ $69 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $962.98 · official $962.98 (match) · 3500 history records