trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 30 | -49.8% | -54.6% | 23% | 20% | -66.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -54.6% | 20% | -66.4% |
| 10% | -59.0% | 20% | -69.6% |
| 15% | -62.9% | 17% | -72.5% |
| 20% | -66.6% | 10% | -75.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $14,558 | $16,728 | +$2,170 (+15%) |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | $6,821 | $8,019 | +$1,198 (+18%) |
| Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 88¢ | 87¢ | $2,065 | $2,051 | −$14 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | Jun 29 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%? | Jun 29 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%? | Jun 29 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET | Jun 20 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $2,249 | −$988 | -44% |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | Jan 25 | $725 | −$113 | -16% |
| Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 5? | Dec 19 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 4? | Dec 19 | $80 | −$80 | -100% |
| Will Anthony Joshua win via Decision? | Dec 19 | $200 | −$142 | -71% |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | Dec 19 | $1,250 | −$1,250 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Nov 13 | $1,581 | −$773 | -49% |
| GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31? | Nov 10 | $1,740 | −$1,538 | -88% |
| Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September? | Nov 06 | $522 | −$25 | -5% |
| Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | Nov 06 | $413 | +$3 | +1% |
| Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | Nov 06 | $600 | +$221 | +37% |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Oct 15 | $1,108 | +$271 | +24% |
| Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%? | Oct 04 | $543 | −$543 | -100% |
| Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in September? | Oct 01 | $298 | −$20 | -7% |
| Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in September? | Sep 30 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Will Romania win on 2025-09-09? | Sep 09 | $42 | −$42 | -100% |
| Will Portugal win on 2025-09-09? | Sep 09 | $44 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will Kosovo win on 2025-09-08? | Sep 09 | $31 | +$13 | +43% |
| Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Sep 08 | $38 | −$8 | -20% |
| Will Spain win on 2025-09-07? | Sep 08 | $25 | +$13 | +54% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Aug 25 | $73 | −$46 | -62% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $7,998 | −$7,998 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Nov 03 | $635 | −$635 | -100% |
| Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31? | Nov 03 | $2,841 | −$2,841 | -100% |
| Annual inflation above 2.2% in September? | Oct 10 | $1,890 | +$951 | +50% |
| Will Atalanta beat Shakhtar Donetsk? | Oct 02 | $401 | +$235 | +59% |