Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FE 0xfe20…fac3 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$94 (+6%) realized +$93 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$18
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$96
other 15% −$2
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -10.2% -18.8% 25% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 15 +1.5% -8.1% 33% 7% -3.6%
≤90d 15 +1.5% -8.1% 33% 7% -3.6%
all 31 +1.2% -8.4% 58% 3% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 3% -4.0%
10% -17.2% 3% -13.2%
15% -25.2% 3% -21.6%
20% -32.5% 3% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.29 per $1 lost it wins $4.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage458d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $139 $139 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $17 +$1 +5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $159 −$2 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -44%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $23 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $132 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $195 +$8 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $153 −$14 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $155 −$3 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $128 −$7 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $147 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $141 +$110 +78%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $6 $0 -6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $55 +$2 +3%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 12 $19 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 14 $11 $0 +3%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 07 $12 $0 -3%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $1 $0 +2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $7 $0 +2%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $41 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $62 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $21 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $59 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $56 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $59 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $59 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $13 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $42 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.31 · official $139.31 (match) · 132 history records