Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfe21…1969 crypto 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$851 (+1%) realized +$851 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate86%156W / 25L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$809per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$197
7 days+$501
14 days+$501
30 days+$501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$820
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.1% -13.2% 92% 8% -5.0%
≤30d 12 -4.1% -13.2% 92% 8% -5.0%
≤90d 68 -9.2% -17.9% 85% 9% -12.5%
all 181 +0.2% -9.3% 86% 21% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 21% -9.0%
10% -18.0% 9% -17.7%
15% -25.9% 6% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,100) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$264 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$851
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses156 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 181
History coverage149d
Avg bet$809
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $1,003 +$49 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $1,005 +$66 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $1,002 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $993 +$42 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $1,003 +$48 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $1,009 +$140 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $996 +$91 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 07 $1,811 −$1,680 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 07 $705 +$81 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 07 $1,048 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 07 $1,702 +$26 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 07 $1,605 +$66 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 07 $1,604 +$60 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 07 $1,601 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 07 $1,601 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 07 $1,408 +$114 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 07 $1,309 +$131 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 07 $1,303 +$38 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 07 $1,252 +$25 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 07 $1,251 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 07 $1,205 +$66 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 07 $1,183 +$36 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 07 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 07 $1,150 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 07 $1,010 +$153 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 07 $993 +$35 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 07 $230 −$219 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 07 $1,237 −$1,183 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 07 $1,306 +$90 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 07 $1,301 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 07 $1,304 +$54 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 07 $1,120 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 07 $1,202 +$31 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 07 $1,201 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 07 $1,201 +$29 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 07 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 07 $1,001 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 07 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 07 $1,004 +$50 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 07 $1,004 +$60 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 07 $1,002 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 06 $1,003 +$43 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 22 $970 +$46 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 22 $1,000 −$115 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 22 $1,000 +$47 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,001 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1,003 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1,005 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,002 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $993 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1,003 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1,009 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,001 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $996 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $116 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $15 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1,811 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $705 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,048 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,702 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1,605 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1,604 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,601 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,601 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1,408 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1,309 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1,303 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,252 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,251 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1,205 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 358 history records