Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe21…1e66 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$97 · open −$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$193
14 days−$12
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$74
other 38% −$39
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +25.6% +13.6% 43% 43% +23.9%
≤30d 46 -22.4% -29.8% 28% 28% -10.8%
≤90d 46 -22.4% -29.8% 28% 28% -10.8%
all 46 -22.4% -29.8% 28% 28% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 28% -10.8%
10% -36.5% 24% -19.3%
15% -42.7% 24% -27.1%
20% -48.3% 20% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$11 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions11
Markets (closed)46 / 57
History coverage24d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 77¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 38¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-29%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 34¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-31%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 32¢ 2¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-95%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 +$52 +510%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 +$29 +57%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$18 -89%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$8 -76%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 +$81 +784%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$5 -50%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $50 +$18 +36%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 +$13 +57%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 +$46 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$9 -61%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$14 -66%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $15 −$12 -80%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3AM ET Jun 02 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 32¢ $20 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 5¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 24h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 63¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 45h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 45h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 47h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $10 47h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.98 · official $194.99 (match) · 91 history records