Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:12:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FE 0xfe24…d848 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$209 (-11%) realized −$205 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$243
30 days+$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$228
crypto 23% +$9
other 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +55.7% +40.8% 83% 67% +6.6%
≤90d 8 +42.6% +29.0% 88% 50% +4.4%
all 10 +24.2% +12.3% 80% 40% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 40% -21.3%
10% +1.6% 40% -28.8%
15% -8.2% 40% -35.7%
20% -17.2% 30% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$363 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage102d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 79¢ 78¢ $158 $157 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 11¢ 10¢ $59 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $334 −$328 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $215 +$85 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $219 +$181 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $31 +$33 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $101 +$199 +197%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 13 $95 +$5 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 25 $399 −$399 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 18? Mar 24 $79 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $61 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $159 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $334 9d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $215 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $219 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $31 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $101 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $28 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $55 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $12 43d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 95¢ $74 73d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 95¢ $21 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 77d
Thunder vs. Celtics BUY Thunder 57¢ $399 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $27 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $53 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.70 · official $213.70 (match) · 26 history records