Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfe24…3919 sports 1095 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 189d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$20 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate64%698W / 391L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$7
14 days+$37
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$28
other 9% −$13
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -6.1% -15.1% 63% 62% -6.7%
≤30d 140 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 66% -3.8%
≤90d 489 -1.7% -11.0% 72% 56% -8.9%
all 1089 -2.1% -11.4% 64% 54% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 54% -8.9%
10% -19.9% 38% -17.6%
15% -27.6% 26% -25.6%
20% -34.7% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses698 / 391
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1089 / 1095
History coverage189d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1089 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 290 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
ITF Constanta: Robert Guna vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
ITF Bucharest: Nada Fouad vs Alessia Marinescu Jun 17 $1 +$1 +51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $2 +$5 +256%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $8 +$3 +40%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +99%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Jangjun Kim Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $10 +$1 +15%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $3 +$1 +35%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $21 +$4 +17%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $17 +$12 +67%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $22 +$7 +33%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $12 +$7 +61%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $18 +$4 +24%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 12 $18 +$7 +37%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 11 $4 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 71¢ $1 30m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle SELL Sebastian Ofner 100¢ $1 39m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Sebastian Ofner 82¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 31¢ $1 5h
ITF Constanta: Robert Guna vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu SELL Robert Guna 100¢ $3 5h
ITF Constanta: Robert Guna vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu BUY Robert Guna 81¢ $1 6h
ITF Constanta: Robert Guna vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu BUY Robert Guna 77¢ $1 6h
ITF Bucharest: Nada Fouad vs Alessia Marinescu SELL Alessia Marinescu 100¢ $2 7h
ITF Bucharest: Nada Fouad vs Alessia Marinescu BUY Alessia Marinescu 65¢ $1 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 21h
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Franco Ribero 23¢ $1 22h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 71¢ $2 23h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 46¢ $1 26h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 73¢ $1 26h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 74¢ $1 26h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 65¢ $1 29h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 72¢ $1 30h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 53¢ $1 31h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 53¢ $1 31h
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Chase Ferguson 55¢ $1 32h
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Chase Ferguson 45¢ $1 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.41 · official $1.41 (match) · 3419 history records