Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe29…7f51 crypto 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%36W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$97
14 days−$97
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$89
other 13% +$32
politics 9% +$63
world 4% −$3
sports 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -23.2% -30.5% 30% 27% -22.6%
≤30d 105 -23.2% -30.5% 30% 27% -22.6%
≤90d 105 -23.2% -30.5% 30% 27% -22.6%
all 111 -21.2% -28.7% 32% 27% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 27% -9.5%
10% -35.5% 26% -18.1%
15% -41.8% 24% -26.0%
20% -47.5% 21% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses36 / 75
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage587d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$8 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.39 · official $2.39 (match) · 217 history records