Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfe2b…51de sports 535 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$761 (-4%) realized −$630 · open −$131
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%229W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$295est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$97
14 days+$102
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$799
other 7% −$84
crypto 6% −$149
economics 5% −$23
tech 0% −$31
world 0% −$41
culture 0% −$18
politics 0% +$14
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +6.9% -3.3% 54% 53% -4.8%
≤30d 181 -1.8% -11.2% 52% 50% -6.8%
≤90d 478 -11.5% -20.0% 45% 42% -15.0%
all 522 -10.4% -18.9% 44% 41% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 41% -15.0%
10% -26.7% 39% -23.2%
15% -33.8% 33% -30.6%
20% -40.3% 27% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$383
Realized−$630
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses229 / 293
Est. fees paid−$295
Open positions10
Markets (closed)522 / 535
History coverage143d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 522 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 13¢ $175 $99 −$77 (-44%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 20¢ 19¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 53¢ 55¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 47¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes $50 $10 −$40 (-80%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 22¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 222 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $81 +$4 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$14 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +102%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $20 +$28 +136%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$18 +89%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$15 +74%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$15 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $40 −$6 -15%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $41 +$25 +62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 +$49 +80%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $27 +$25 +93%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $18 −$10 -52%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $20 +$13 +66%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$10 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $63 −$62 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$30 +149%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $71 +$48 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $33 +$44 +135%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $17 +$41 +238%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$76 +38%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$27 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $14 +$25 +176%
Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $41 +$29 +71%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$33 +132%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $30 +$26 +86%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $30 +$28 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $20 19m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 22¢ $10 40m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 54¢ $40 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 11h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 46¢ $9 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $11 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes $27 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $31 12h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 47¢ $30 12h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $85 12h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $81 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $45 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $18 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 13h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $13 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 47¢ $5 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 42¢ $20 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $15 26h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) SELL Chicago Cubs 90¢ $35 38h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 51¢ $20 39h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 52¢ $20 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 42h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $106 43h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 20¢ $104 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.83 · official $400.83 · 1384 history records