Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe2e…f385 other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$31
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$40
sports 25% −$21
politics 9% −$7
economics 7% −$6
culture 5% −$7
crypto 4% −$4
world 2% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage135d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $271 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $142 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $804 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $589 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $303 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $459 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,131 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $160 −$3 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $675 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $491 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $134 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $329 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $367 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $324 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $454 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $403 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $152 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $496 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $613 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $417 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 2h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $62 7h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $63 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 14h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 16h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 22h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 24h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 28h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 30h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 32h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 33h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 35h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 36h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $63 38h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $63 39h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 41h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 44h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 44h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $64 46h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 3d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1339 history records