Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe30…4916 crypto 1364 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,507 (-8%) realized −$313 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate82%1119W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$84
14 days−$302
30 days−$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 625 -4.7% -13.8% 76% 22% -10.8%
≤30d 1364 -3.3% -12.6% 82% 20% -10.9%
≤90d 1364 -3.3% -12.6% 82% 20% -10.9%
all 1364 -3.3% -12.6% 82% 20% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 20% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 10% -19.5%
15% -28.6% 6% -27.2%
20% -35.6% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$313
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1119 / 245
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1364 / 1364
History coverage18d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $13 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $18 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $22 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $26 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records