Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe31…b8e0 world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
other 24% +$2
politics 14% −$5
sports 14% −$11
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% −$7
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 14% -9.0%
≤30d 25 -0.9% -10.4% 36% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 71 -1.8% -11.2% 25% 4% -9.9%
all 74 -2.7% -12.0% 27% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 5% -10.2%
10% -20.4% 1% -18.8%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage529d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $35 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 +$4 +12%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $61 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $179 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $103 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $29 −$2 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $124 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $19 −$3 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $37 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $109 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $58 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $66 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $77 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $188 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $113 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $5 +$1 +13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $154 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 43h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 45h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $38 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $32 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $32 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $24 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $21 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $15 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $18 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $32 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $6 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $27 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $26 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.91 · official $30.19 (match) · 326 history records