Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe35…e4db crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-89%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-52.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -46.9% -52.0% 17% 17% -90.9%
≤30d 6 -46.9% -52.0% 17% 17% -90.9%
≤90d 6 -46.9% -52.0% 17% 17% -90.9%
all 6 -46.9% -52.0% 17% 17% -90.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.0% 17% -90.9%
10% -56.6% 17% -91.8%
15% -60.8% 17% -92.6%
20% -64.6% 17% -93.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records