Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe35…26e1 crypto 29 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (302 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-4%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day302.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (302 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +13.7% +2.9% 31% 24% -23.9%
≤30d 29 +13.7% +2.9% 31% 24% -23.9%
≤90d 29 +13.7% +2.9% 31% 24% -23.9%
all 29 +13.7% +2.9% 31% 24% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover302.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 24% -23.9%
10% ← realistic here -6.9% 14% -31.2%
15% -15.9% 10% -37.8%
20% -24.2% 7% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day302.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $245 −$105 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $122 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$9 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$9 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$8 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$7 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$74 +1396%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $136 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $24 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $105 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.