Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe36…c9b0 other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate14%16W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$16
politics 23% −$7
sports 15% −$6
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 74 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 116 -3.4% -12.6% 14% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 4% -9.6%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses16 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage130d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $139 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $150 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $382 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $412 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $261 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $475 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $482 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $475 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $259 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $209 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $252 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $244 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $242 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $454 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $217 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $240 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $272 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $232 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $259 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $468 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 04 $190 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 04 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $413 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $425 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 02 $204 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 18d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $139 18d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $139 21d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $150 21d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $150 21d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $160 31d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $160 33d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $157 35d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $157 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 50d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $206 60d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $206 60d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $270 60d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $270 60d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 60d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $220 60d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $266 60d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $266 61d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 61d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $212 61d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $261 61d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $261 61d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 61d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 61d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $200 61d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $200 61d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $247 62d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $247 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 348 history records