Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfe37…911d sports 635 markets active 3h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$470 (+1%) realized +$470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate70%444W / 191L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Fees−$332est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$20
14 days−$123
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$339
other 2% −$37
crypto 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +6.6% -3.5% 69% 40% -9.9%
≤30d 306 +2.8% -7.0% 64% 41% -11.2%
≤90d 635 +4.6% -5.3% 70% 43% -8.7%
all 635 +4.6% -5.3% 70% 43% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 43% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 23% -17.4%
15% -22.7% 12% -25.4%
20% -30.2% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses444 / 191
Est. fees paid−$332
Open positions0
Markets (closed)635 / 635
History coverage53d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 635 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $81 +$26 +32%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 27 $14 $0 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $73 +$13 +18%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $35 +$15 +43%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $88 −$11 -12%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $13 −$2 -12%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $128 −$45 -36%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $83 +$16 +19%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $16 +$14 +89%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $83 +$15 +18%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Jun 25 $16 $0 -0%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Jun 25 $90 +$9 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Zizou Bergs Jun 25 $261 −$13 -5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Madison Keys Jun 25 $77 +$21 +27%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng Jun 25 $91 −$20 -22%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $18 +$11 +62%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $170 −$59 -35%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $5 −$3 -53%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $149 +$3 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $77 +$1 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 24 $105 +$5 +5%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $87 +$7 +8%
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn Jun 24 $118 +$10 +8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Giles Hussey vs Quentin Halys Jun 24 $25 +$1 +3%
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Jun 24 $78 +$21 +26%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $104 −$8 -8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 24 $22 +$7 +32%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Madison Keys Jun 24 $63 +$10 +16%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $145 −$22 -15%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $12 $0 -1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $84 +$14 +16%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $74 +$25 +34%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $83 +$4 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $105 +$9 +9%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $91 +$6 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart Jun 23 $79 +$19 +24%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $15 +$5 +31%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $164 −$57 -35%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Maya Joint vs Emiliana Arango Jun 22 $63 +$36 +57%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $74 +$8 +10%
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $25 +$4 +18%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer Jun 22 $26 +$4 +14%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henri Squire vs Michael Zheng Jun 22 $89 +$8 +9%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $96 +$7 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $165 −$85 -52%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $91 +$8 +9%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $108 +$7 +6%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 21 $22 +$5 +22%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango Jun 21 $94 +$24 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 98¢ $98 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 72¢ $14 3h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Ethan Quinn 47¢ $9 3h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 73¢ $19 3h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 73¢ $54 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 69¢ $14 4h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn 40¢ $8 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 86¢ $86 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 73¢ $73 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 70¢ $31 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 70¢ $4 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 68¢ $68 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 33¢ $10 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 69¢ $69 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 60¢ $12 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 63¢ $19 28h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn SELL Nuno Borges 6¢ $6 28h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 77¢ $76 28h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 75¢ $64 28h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 75¢ $11 28h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 67¢ $13 28h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 53¢ $53 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 99¢ $94 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 99¢ $5 28h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 98¢ $98 29h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 83¢ $83 29h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 83¢ $83 30h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 53¢ $16 31h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer SELL Tristan Boyer 80¢ $16 2d
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges SELL Nuno Borges 99¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2659 history records