Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfe38…cb63 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$33 (+5%) realized +$20 · open +$74
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$21
14 days+$28
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$23
other 14% +$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +2.0% -7.8% 50% 50% -2.6%
≤30d 54 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 52% +1.5%
≤90d 60 -4.9% -14.0% 48% 47% -6.8%
all 60 -4.9% -14.0% 48% 47% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 47% -6.8%
10% -22.2% 47% -15.7%
15% -29.7% 42% -23.9%
20% -36.6% 32% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 31
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage38d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MLB: Scorigami in 2026? Yes 37¢ $25 $99 +$74 (+301%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 62¢ 60¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$7 +96%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 +$3 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$6 +242%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$8 -75%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +49%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +120%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$10 +103%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$5 -54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 +$4 +37%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $17 −$15 -90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +110%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 −$4 -83%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$5 -73%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 +$5 +35%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -56%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 +$4 +74%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $7 +$4 +58%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +68%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$21 +101%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $15 −$1 -7%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -92%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$19 +191%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $15 −$12 -77%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $25 +$10 +41%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 +$6 +59%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 04 $10 +$6 +63%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $10 +$12 +122%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 03 $12 −$6 -51%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $15 +$7 +47%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $10 +$2 +25%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $20 +$17 +84%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$11 +108%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$4 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 43m
MLB: Scorigami in 2026? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $3 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $8 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 10h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $8 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $15 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $3 20h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $10 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 22h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 36¢ $3 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 96¢ $22 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $3 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $21 26h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 29¢ $5 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $14 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 34h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $5 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $10 34h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 34h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $10 34h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $10 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 46h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over $2 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.44 · official $121.44 (match) · 135 history records