Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe3b…fdf1 world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%31W / 49L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$20
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$41
other 36% +$2
sports 12% +$8
politics 9% −$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% +$10
economics 1% +$1
weather 0% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 26% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 31 -0.3% -9.8% 26% 0% -9.9%
all 80 +2.1% -7.6% 39% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 4% -9.8%
10% -16.5% 4% -18.4%
15% -24.5% 4% -26.3%
20% -31.9% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses31 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage473d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $108 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $54 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $118 −$5 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $201 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $445 −$13 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $123 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $231 −$3 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $176 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $3 $0 +9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $155 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $242 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $240 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $354 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $271 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $124 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $113 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $211 −$13 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $108 −$4 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $66 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $161 −$16 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $170 −$1 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $1,128 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $129 +$13 +10%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $975 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,073 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $791 −$2 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $987 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $19 +$1 +4%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 17 $21 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? May 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 14 $5 +$2 +51%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 9–16? May 13 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $108 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $108 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $93 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $93 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $54 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $97 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $97 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $21 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $37 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $44 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $20 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $93 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $102 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $97 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $95 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $112 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $41 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $124 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $123 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $102 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $123 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.74 · official $31.32 (match) · 316 history records