Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FE 0xfe3c…dfd2 weather 662 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$290 (+1%) realized +$316 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%595W / 24L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day81.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$79
14 days+$182
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$294
sports 4% −$10
other 0% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 2% -8.8%
≤30d 619 +0.7% -8.9% 96% 2% -8.8%
≤90d 619 +0.7% -8.9% 96% 2% -8.8%
all 619 +0.7% -8.9% 96% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 2% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.25 per $1 lost it wins $4.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2,323
Realized+$316
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses595 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions43
Markets (closed)619 / 662
History coverage19d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day81.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $149 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 98¢ 96¢ $91 $89 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $72 $74 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or below on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or below on June 12? Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 13 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? Jun 13 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $48 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 36°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 55m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 40¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 40¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $98 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $91 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $59 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $149 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 93¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $37 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,322.96 · official $2,323.02 (match) · 2111 history records